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EVALUATION OF THE ONLINE POLL FOR EASTERN EQUATORIA STATE GOVERNORSHIP 2026–2031


Poll Organized by Sir. Abunerry Blogcast 

Let us assume, for the purpose of this analysis, that the 154 participants in the online poll represent the entire electorate and that all 154 are eligible voters.

Under this assumption, the poll can be treated as a 154-voter hypothetical election simulation.

POLL RESULTS

    1. Hon. Nartision Loluke – 75 votes – 48.7%
    2. Hon. Ayella John – 30 votes – 19.5%
    3. Hon. Lobong Lojore – 23 votes – 14.9%
    4. Hon. Tobiolo Oromo – 12 votes – 7.8%
    5. Undecided – 14 votes – 9.1%

Total voters: 154

Duration of voting: 24 hours

PURPOSE OF THE ONLINE POLL

The poll was conducted for two main purposes:

  • To identify who the 154 participating voters would choose to lead Eastern Equatoria State for the next five years if an election were held.
  • To evaluate Governor Lobong Lojore's level of support among the participating voters.

ANALYSIS AND IMPLICATIONS

1. Hon. Nartision Loluke

With 75 out of 154 votes, Hon. Nartision Loluke received the largest share of the votes, accounting for approximately 48.7% of the hypothetical electorate.

Under the assumptions of this poll, he therefore emerges with the highest level of support among the candidates presented.

2. Hon. Ayella John

Hon. Ayella John received 30 votes, representing approximately 19.5% of the hypothetical electorate.

Under this poll's assumptions, Ayella is 7 votes ahead of Governor Lobong Lojore, who received 23 votes.

This indicates that, within this 154-voter exercise, Ayella attracted more support than the incumbent governor among the participating electorate.

3. Governor Lobong Lojore

Governor Lobong received 23 votes, representing approximately 14.9% of the hypothetical electorate.

Under this particular poll, he placed behind both Hon. Nartision Loluke and Hon. Ayella John.

This result raises questions about the level of support the governor would command among voters represented by this exercise.

4. Hon. Tobiolo Oromo

Hon. Tobiolo Oromo received 12 votes, representing approximately 7.8% of the hypothetical electorate.

Under this poll, he received fewer votes than Hon. Ayella John and Governor Lobong.

5. Undecided voters

The 14 undecided voters, representing approximately 9.1%, are significant because their eventual choices could alter the distribution of support if they were required to vote for one of the candidates.

Earliest results 

WHAT THE NUMBERS TELL US

If these 154 voters were treated as the entire electorate and the election were conducted under the same conditions as this poll, no candidate would have received an absolute majority of the votes.

Hon. Nartision Loluke received 75 votes, leaving him 2 votes short of 77, which would constitute more than half of the 154-voter electorate.

Therefore, under this hypothetical scenario, the poll demonstrates a clear lead for Nartision but not an outright majority.

The result also shows a substantial difference between the leading candidate and the others:

  • Nartision Loluke: 75
  • Ayella John: 30
  • Lobong Lojore: 23
  • Tobiolo Oromo: 12
  • Undecided: 14

The difference between Nartision and Ayella is 45 votes.

The difference between Ayella and Lobong is 7 votes.

The difference between Lobong and Tobiolo is 11 votes.

CONCLUSION

If we accept the 154 participants as the entire hypothetical electorate, the votes have produced a clear ordering of support.

Hon. Nartision Loluke leads with 75 votes, followed by Hon. Ayella John with 30, Governor Lobong Lojore with 23, and Hon. Tobiolo Oromo with 12. Fourteen voters remain undecided.

The most notable result is that, within this hypothetical electorate, Ayella John received more votes than the incumbent Governor Lobong Lojore.

The poll therefore provides an interesting snapshot of how these 154 assumed voters would distribute their support if they were the electorate.

However, the actual election will involve the legally defined electorate and electoral procedures established by the National Elections Commission. The NEC is the institution responsible for conducting elections in South Sudan, including gubernatorial elections.

A MESSAGE TO THE PEOPLE OF EASTERN EQUATORIA

Leadership is ultimately a choice made by citizens through the ballot.

The people of Eastern Equatoria should therefore examine the records, programmes, character, experience, vision and promises of every candidate before making their decision.

Ask your representatives about the promises they made. Ask what has been achieved. Ask what remains unfinished. Ask what they intend to do differently.

Whatever choice you make will have consequences for the future of Eastern Equatoria.

Be informed. Be courageous. Be wise.


Sir. Abunerry Blogcast

Brutal Writer, Critic, and Teacher.

Originally written, but AI refined. 

 

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